Making the Case: Examining Outcomes of Religious-Based Claims in Federal Litigation Involving LGBT Rights

Introduction: In this manuscript, we analyze 62 US federal cases from 1990 to 2020 that implicate the issue of religious freedom and LGBT rights. Popular and scholarly commentary on the advancement of LGBT rights in the twenty-first century has speculated a rise in religious exemption litigation as a strategy to oppose such rights. Yet, we lack empirical data to confirm or reject this assumption and to understand patterns and trends within such cases. Methods: We perform bivariate analyses to examine trends with regard to how the court rules on these cases. Results: Our findings show that religious litigants are not very successful in court. Our findings also illustrate the following trends: religious litigants who are anti-LGBT experience more success in the courts compared to those who are pro-LGBT; courts are more likely to rule in favor of religious litigants if they are businesses and if cases involve wedding-related services or adoption/foster care; and cases involving the First Amendment Free Speech clause are most likely to succeed. Conclusions: These results suggest that federal courts are fairly consistent in not ruling in favor of religious-based legal claims. Yet, the cases that are successful reflect how the law upholds Christian hegemonic understandings of gender and sexuality. Policy Implications: Given that the Supreme Court has yet to provide a definitive answer to whether exemptions must be granted to religious actors opposed to non-discrimination laws related to sexual orientation and gender identity, this question will likely continue to be contested in American politics and future lawsuits.

该研究分析了1990至2020年间62起涉及宗教自由与LGBT权利的美国联邦案件。尽管学术界和大众普遍猜测宗教豁免诉讼会成为反对LGBT权利的一种策略，但目前缺乏实证数据来验证这一假设，且对这些案件的模式和趋势也没有深入了解。

这篇文章基于1990至2020年间1281起美国联邦法院的宗教歧视或宗教豁免案件，选取了涉及LGBT权利的62起案件进行分析。研究团队使用Nexis Uni数据库，通过关键词筛选出相关案件，并对每个案件的80个维度进行编码。通过Cohen’s kappa一致性分析，确保编码结果可靠。文章重点进行定量分析，探讨法院如何裁定涉及宗教权利的案件，并通过双变量分析审视案件裁决趋势及原告的成功率。

本研究分析了1990至2020年间62起涉及宗教自由和LGBT人群的联邦案件。研究发现，尽管宗教自由诉讼没有在同性婚姻合法化后增加，但保守派宗教人士在多种政策和权利方面积极提起诉讼，反对LGBT权益。尽管宗教诉讼者胜诉的几率较低，仅21起案件中法院支持宗教诉讼者，且在其中3起案件中裁定宗教依据的法律主张有效。法院倾向于支持反对LGBT权益的基督教信仰，但无论信仰如何，宗教诉讼者支持LGBT权益时法院往往裁定不利。研究还发现，涉及婚礼相关服务或收养/寄养案件时，法院更可能支持宗教诉讼主张。此外，商业诉讼者因宗教豁免成功的几率较高。未来的研究应继续探讨美国公众对这些议题的态度，及其如何影响法院判决。